Housing Vacancies Q3 2009 Report

by John Galt

October 30, 2009

Even though the Bubblemedia might have you believe that all is improving with the housing market, unless there’s a whole lotta birthin’ going on, we’re in some serious trouble with 18, 843, 000 vacant homes per the latest Census Bureau Report for Q3 2009(PDF File).  As you can see below, the raw numbers do not look that bad at first glance:

HOUSINGINVQ309

That chart, for those who wonder is direct from the report. When you start to review the historical data back to 2000 though, you get a better picture of the condition of our housing markets and realize that this will take years to dig through the inventory, even if we stopped building tomorrow. In the graph below, I decided to post the quarterly data along with the Census Bureau’s category for “Held Off Market” which is a subset of the massive vacant inventory number:

VACANTHELDQ309jgfla

With the Cash for Clunk Houses tax credit soon to expire, a wee bit more of the inventory was put on the market but as you can see, the total number still being held is at a historic high and with the demographics of a retiring population, unless these homes are in prime retiree regions (which some are by the way) and affordable and less than the 2900 square foot McMansions than they will not move. Unless the economic “expansion” gets real and creates millions of new jobs soon, this number will continue to grow and act like an anchor on our economy, creating such a drastic drag that the statistical recovery will be dragged into a prolonged period of flat to negative GDP for many years to come.

Advertisements

1 Comment

Filed under Uncategorized

One response to “Housing Vacancies Q3 2009 Report

  1. koios

    JG-

    Two more REOs were thrown our way today for repairs – one of which is a $1.5MM house in the oldest & most expensive neighborhood in Charlotte.

    Last year this time I had never done a REO – this year 11 so far, and I’m not even marketing to REO brokers.

    Once BOA & Wells/Wachovia start to cut heavily, it will be all over. Local unemployment is at 12.5% already. I had clear sailing up I-77 at 8AM this morning. Normal at that time was 30-45 minutes last year.