The Numbers Don't Lie: There is No Christmas for Retailers or Obamanomics

by John Galt

October 17, 2009

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If it is not coming into port, it’s not going to be on the store shelves. When you seriously start to review the information on business inventories, port activity and rail movement reports it tells the tale the mainstream media will not dare tell anyone:

That this is nothing more than a financial and statistical recovery.

It is nothing more than attempt to try a new twist on an old failed theory that by making people “feel” good the economy will actually begin to recovery thanks to psychological factors. The political snow-job started first under the Bush-Paulson fiasco has only been piled upon and expanded with the Obama-Summers regime (Geithner is nothing more than a lap dog for Summers and the banking cartel).  When you review the weekly rail reports from Railfax you begin to understand that we are moving less, not more goods for what should be a Christmas inventory build.

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While this data does not underline the actual tonnage declines, when one takes into account the total rail car loadings as of last week on an annual basis compared to 2008, you get the idea that we are heading for another precipitous fall in November and on through the first half of next year barring an inflationary miracle:

Thus why I can say with some serious confidence that there will be no Happy Happy Joy Joy Merry Christmas in the retail sector and with the alleged recovery in housing and construction nothing more than a REO based mirage, the next decline down will be the one that tests our mettle as a nation. With the  “leadership” we have in charge of both poltical parties it is and will continue to be every man, woman and child for themselves.

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4 Comments

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4 responses to “The Numbers Don't Lie: There is No Christmas for Retailers or Obamanomics

  1. Pingback: the numbers don't lie.... - Expedite Trucking Forums

  2. Dabino

    I also pay attention to rail traffic and agree that this is good indicator of economy’s state. What i see on your chart is recovery, because gap vs py is narrowing. In nov/dec we will probably see growth.
    What surprises me is that US rail traffic chart looks like one for Russia. Timing is almost the same despite Russian traffic is slewed to commodities. But recovery is clear:
    http://picasaweb.google.ru/m/viewer#photo/bovykin/5366457580061589953,authkey:Gv1sRgCIDHmsjK1KHgGA/5376754661277685570

    • Administrator

      What you have to take into account is the container traffic with the rail traffic. As we move forward the numbers will improve only because the levels were so poor last year from this quarter moving onwards. When you take the tonnage and loadings into account you will see what appears to be an improvement BUT look at the big picture for industrial output, capacity utilization and the employment data you start to realize that this recovery is simply a financial and statistical recovery and nothing more. Without housing moving out of its pre-1962 levels, there is no recovery.

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