by John Galt
First an apology brought to you by well, the head banana.
Yes, that’s right, the head banana imbibed and paid the price for it yesterday on 4 1/2 hours sleep but it was worth it as the U finally looks like the dreaded Curse of Coker might finally be lifting and I was in too much of a daze to write the Obamarket update much less be creative beyond going “oh crap my head hurts” and smiling at the same time. That being said, I still like FSU and respect them and thank them for adding to the legend of the series by providing one heck of a game.
Yesterday we heard the mainstream media and everyone else go ape over gold crossing the $1000 mark again. Well, let’s look at that chart first before discussing what happened today and why the media, in my opinion, is once again getting this all wrong.
Remember this chart from September 2nd?
Well, let us see what happened yesterday and today:
We sold off today, held the 96.50 level and did so filling a gap and on declining volume; hence support held and we should see another run past $1000 any day now and $100 on the GLD ETF. Is this a big deal? Only psychologically; the real target price with accelerating volume is a close above the $1040-$1050 range and that will support the theory that the next bull leg is intact and roaring north. Once we close on a weekly basis above those levels the mania should take hold but why are we seeing and hearing more stories about gold and why it is suddenly surging in price? The media tosses around terms like “future inflation” or “hedge against risk” etc., but there is a much more logical explanation and all you have to do is look beyond the volume numbers and media mayhem and read the news the rest of the world covers and the average American sheeple ignores.
In the Arabian peninsula you have a massive war against a long dormant rebel movement in Yemen which has a history back to the 1960’s suddenly becoming very ‘hot’ as the Iranians and Al-Queda have been working to supply and overthrow the regime there. There is a long history of tribal rivalry in that region of the Arabian peninsula which at one time engulfed parts of Saudi Arabia (modern day) and the Sultanate of Oman. The instability in Yemen threatens to create further discontent within the southern regions of Saudi Arabia and that threatens the oil markets which of course with instability and hence some investors in that region of the world are looking at a safe haven and this time is is NOT the US Dollar. Add in that little matter of Iran having enough material to assemble some nukes and I think we can officially label the entire region as “unstable” and worth paying attention to.
Add in the G20 meeting which coincided on September 2nd with the sudden move in gold( hmmmm, someone has inside information perhaps?) and the dollar just absolutely getting trashed with a close below the 78 mark and then some by today and you have to wonder if a concerted effort is under way to perform a surgical international “devaluation” of Mr. Buck while the American people are busy watching “Dancing With the Stars” and the Obama Healthcare Two Step. Information overload will cause many to overlook this but in the same breath the long term impact will not be noticed until the end of this year so party on America, your savings are being eviscerated and the masses do not seem to care.
Thus it is my opinion that geopolitical instability along with perceived instability within the United States is what is driving the price higher and thus the technical factors that seem to be long overdue have little to do with this move. Once the move is met with the technical trip wires above the $1050 mark, there will be a mad rush into precious metals by institutions of all size and the little guy will be left out in the cold, once again. In the mean time, do not get excited about what is happening. It will increase in price, it is a matter of when, not if.
Today’s date with Destiny can be summed up in one chart:
The dollar is in serious trouble and once the 76 level is shattered on a weekly close, there is nothing but air to 70 and after that maybe 62, maybe 57 ish as we enter into an unknown era and arena for our currency. The bottom line is that a 10-15% devaluation won’t hurt the President and might stimulate the export economy rapidly. Of course we who have been warning know the long term implications of such an act and that is why something happened at the G20 that we do not know about but triggered the move in the US Dollar and gold with violent rapidity.
With all of this good news, people are asking “just how are stocks even possibly up and why?”
Zero Hedge had an excellent post at his blog about the SPY Volume 40% Below Average and that should give everyone a clue. With lower volume it does not take much to move markets. And since a dozen high beta stocks played with our wonderful computer arbitrage driven systems can be used to move the markets. Remember the charts I’ve posted before?
Note the date, 9/1.
Again, please note the date, 8/31.
Now for today’s most active from the WSJ Market Data Page:
So let’s look at all three charts. Fannie and Freddie are zombies, 100% government controlled companies where the equity value is really ZERO but it is a trader’s instrument sort of like that drunk little old lady you see at 4 a.m. at the Roulette wheel at the MGM Mirage then realize she’s just betting on the pretty colors to try to win. Citigroup and Bank of America are partially owned government entities which are only around because we the taxpayers are forced by gunpoint to pay our taxes to insure that these companies survive because after all, they are “too big to fail” and we can’t have those CEO’s flying coach now can we?
GE is only around because somehow, after giving an entire group of television networks to the administration to use for propaganda and to help pump the stock market, they got that bank designation although I swear my refrigerator has yet to offer me that ATM moment that my microwave does when I punch my PIN into the timer (of course the popcorn is incinerated as a result). Thus from the Wall Street Journal pages above, you can see the majority of the volume is somehow affiliated with companies that just happen to be owned/used/whored as a result of taxpayer donations and mysteriously traded often like the damned companies are worth anything. In reality you have to ask (cue the X-Files theme) is if this is the case for the past 4 months, is it possible that the Federal Reserve working with the United States Hedge Fund (aka Treasury) elected to pump up the equities to insure that capital requirements are met for the big banks and thus giving the perception that a miracle has happened to insure a safe, sand steady recovery that will endure until Bo’s dog loses his virginity?
Who knows. Only a historian will know decades from now when the truth is discovered and shared with the world. In the mean time, today has come and gone and nothing has happened other than a speech from our fearless leader and my stomach turning rapidly at the thought of having to listen to politicians talk about “health care” for one more month while the dollar is shredded like a Bernard Madoff file folder. Get ready for a wild remaining September folks as this will not end well for America the way things are being set up and your voice will be heard then ignored as usual. The time to act is now and that act is self-preservation in every way.