By John Galt
September 1, 2009
Tonight our beloved leader, this guy:
Is taking the time to meet and celebrate Ramadan with Islamic-Americans at a private dinner. Good for him. That 0.6% of the population (per the Pew Research Center Report “Muslim Americans” from May of 2007) is one of the key reasons he was elected Il Duce of our Republic and a contributing factor to keeping oil prices low and stupid camel jockeys in the House of Saud buying our toilet paper humorously labeled “US Treasury Bond” on a monthly basis. Of course, memory might fail me, but during President’s Day, a non-religious holiday dedicated to Washington and Lincoln on February 15th thanks to the liberals in Congress (after all those evil founders can’t have their own holidays and Lincoln is only good for pennies and speeches) the Obamas spent that holiday painting the town red in Chicago at Table 52, a famous eatery, then postponing pumping that famous stimulus bill that has given us that recovery we all know and love.
Ah well, it is his holiday now that he’s President and Ramadamnadingdong is much more important when you have DNC contributors who ride camels and marry them.
With that political rant and absolutely anti-Islamofacist rant out of my system, let’s talk about some reality, something that hit the markets HARD today.
Tonight Sheila Bair, the head of the FDIC appeared on Larry Kudlow’s circus presentation on Bubblevision tonight. Her basic message was the traditional “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” to the sheeple and that while commercial real estate (CRE) was a problem, it wasn’t as bad as the residential problem and should not impact the banks as bad as speculated. Excuse me? It will drive the problem but not be as bad? Please, pass me whatever you are smoking babe. I’m a schmuck. I admit it. I look at a lot of the same data that anyone else on the web can obtain and then some.
Sheila, you’re right, the agency you supervise can never be insolvent because you can milk us idiots out here who pay our taxes and live in fear of that no-knock raid from Federal goons at 2 a.m. as a result. But we’re not stupid. If you honestly want us to believe that first the government is solvent and next your agency has the ability to say with a straight face that the banking system is sound. Bunk. 2600 banks plus need to be taken out and shot but you want to pace yourself and you won’t admit why. Even with a friendly lapdog like Kudlow who gave you a slow pitch over the plate asking that question, you would not admit why. Well, here’s a little reality as to why you will have to tap the $25 billion emergency credit line as soon as possible and possibly hit the larger $100 billion line from the Treasury Department when it is all said and done:
According to the FDIC’s own data, the DIF has a balance of -$376,900,000 as of this past Friday’s closings. Obviously, whether that information is public or not, the credit lines have to have been tapped and the usual bureaucratic delays will buy the FDIC time to postpone reporting this information until after the new fiscal year begins on October 1st. There is no way the agency can afford $250 million closings every week, especially if they started doing them at 5 per night to clean up the mess, thus the slow painful drag. What will be fascinating to watch is if she elects to ramp up closings now that the Jacksonville, FL office is open along with the CA and TX offices and the weak sisters that are simply milking dupes will be shut down once and for all. Sadly for the taxpayer, no decisions or direction have been made regarding the truly toxic CRE and Residential assets being held on the books of these banksters and that is where the problem will magnify the weakness of our financial system before Q3 and Q4 are over.
With that cheery bit of good news, let us look again at the Wall Street Journal Market Data Pages and see just what was the most active stocks in this day when some of the big money picked up the phone after their morning Mimosa’s in Belize and said “sell”….
The chart to the left is obviously from 8/31 and the one to the right from Today’s trading. What can we determine? That C, BAC and CIT constituted the majority of the volume and it was not good. Add in the market action of Goldman Sachs and many others financials and you get the idea that today’s market action resulted in one angry banana.
Ah well, it was only a matter of time until the banana told the bull wannabe to be quiet. This morning when the banksters looked on to their screens they saw a very depressing flow of sell orders but the big differences between the “up” days that were touted by the Bubblevisionistas and today was the volume. Our typical market rally days were on NYSE volumes of 1 to 1.25 billion shares. This sell off was pronounced, a definite distribution day, and indicated that the mistrust that the “big money’ has in our government and the clowns managing the financials is growing daily as top line revenue numbers are not sustainable with the unemployment picture continuing to worsen and with the American consumer broke, busted and soon to be foreclosed upon. The real numbers, no matter how much lipstick the NAR, BLS or Commerce puts on their pigs tell of a nation that is about to understand what a sustained reduced standard of living will mean and how much damage that will do to our economy for several more years to come if the deleveraging process is not allowed to complete and government interference in to our free markets does not end. Since the latter will not happen, prepare for more rocky times. Put your seats in the upright position and fold your trays into the seat in front of you.
With that vision of our future in your minds, watch the market action on Thursday, more so than tomorrow unless we have another large volume sell off (in excess of today’s volume) after the ADP numbers come out. The key report on Friday going into a long weekend could create a wee bit more turbulence than Old Ben and Obama would like. Plus the fact that there has been no announcement to who won the official FDIC Crappola Lotto of the Week by buying Corus should give one pause. Maybe everyone is tired of the nonsense or unwilling to just take the FDIC’s word that their portfolio will “grow” out of its current issues. One thing is for sure; if you drive down the streets of Fort Lauderdale, Miami, Naples, Fort Myers or the Tampa area, you’ll see the problems a lot of these non-Florida based banks are inheriting thanks to massive defaults.
And it gives you some idea as to just how big the commercial real estate problem really is.