A Quick Note About New Home Sales

by John Galt

July 29, 2009

Since yours truly lives in the belly of the beast, I decided to see what the upper end of the new home sales report had to say. It said exactly what I expected to with the high end market still quite dead and keep in mind my fellow skeptics, the high end includes a lot of the New York, California and high end market in Florida. If you look at the data from the Commerce Department the one thing that you have to keep in mind is that the conforming loan limit is still $417,000 so the data in the $400-$499 K range could be somewhat skewed. Even if that is the case, the numbers indicate that the green shoots nonsense the idiots in Bubblemedia are talking about appears to be nothing more than a seasonal surge. Also if you look at the very high end, the so-called “big money” is still bouncing off the bottom and not buying thus they are conserving cash and it would appear not as bullish on the future after the free wheeling good old days as displayed in the 2005-2006 numbers. The down trend is still preserved, still within a declining wedge and until it breaks out of that and starts a return to at least 2007 levels, I would not get too excited about reports like this.

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