Smoke, Mirrors, Distortion, Hope and Change – The Earnings Pump Myth Part 1- Transportation

Shenandoah

July 27, 2009

Smoke, Mirrors, Distortion, Hope and Change – The Earnings Pump Myth Part 1- Transportation

Filed under: Old Posts — John Galt @ 12:39 am

by John Galt

July 27, 2009

Earnings Reports Give Stocks Big BoostWashington Post, July 26, 2009

Dow tops 9000 as optimism reignsChicago Tribune, July 24, 2009

Beyond Dow 9,000: Pisani Sees New Bull SignsBubblevision aka CNBC, July 24, 2009

Bulls back as Dow closes above 9000Â Â Christian Science Monitor, July 23, 2009

I could go on and on and on and on and on with the various television sound bite prognosticators, the endless newspaper headlines and hype pieces from the financial press, there are at least a few brave souls out there on television and radio who are warning about the underlying rot in the so-called economic recovery underway. Historically speaking, the duration of this recession should be coming to an end as 18 to 20 months is the norm yet it would appear we will be approaching the two year mark before any noticeable cessation or flatlining in the decline can be realistically noticed.

With part one of this series, I shall start by focusing on the transportation aspect of this situation since that is my primary area of expertise. I know this factoid disturbs a lot of my critics but sadly yes, I read, managed and helped create P&L statements in my life so thus my ability to present pertinent facts will upset the POLLYKNEALES of the world, but hang in there Dennis, that piece of tin is still flying your way.

On to the 2nd Quarter reports of importance thus far….

For the alphabet impaired and for the ease of accessibility on my hard drive, we shall start with ABF (Arkansas Best Freightways Full 8K here) which should start to paint a picture that the green shoots being sprayed like bull piss are not what they seem….

ABFOPERATINGSTATISTICS.jpg

Yup, just what I suspected. Green shoots everywhere.

ABFOPRREV.jpg

Yeah those revenue figures just don’t lie. I think I’ll buy 1 million shares of Countrywide (oops, can’t do that now) or whatever Cramer tells me to now!!! Ok, let’s be fair, that is only one company that indicates the health of our transportation systems.

Let’s see what is going on with old Bubblevision’s favorite billionaire Warren Buffett’s pet railroad….

BURLINGTONCOMMODITYdetail.jpg

Holy crappola! Those green shoots must have been hit with solar radiation due to Algore’s global warming!!!! What a horrid set of numbers! Batman, quick, save the day!

BURLINGTONQ2FREIGHTREVSbysectorGRAPH.jpg

Never mind. Batman hit a wall and met reality; or perhaps a Scottish constable with a taser. Paging Mr. Buffett, can we please add more desert to the “Buffet” tray at the end of the line seeing as your companies are going to poop on the shareholders!?!?!

Thankfully CH Robinson Worldwide is NOT owned by WB or General Electric so they do have a prayer in hell of making a profit right?

CHRQ2INTERMODALjgfla.jpg

Hot damn! They did make money on the top line because they were able to match the LOWEST PRICE to the in demand vendor via their brokerage operations and the intermodal methods sucked so hot damn they made money! However, container traffic is in the proverbial crapper and the other transport companies only use CH Robinson to get equipment back into place to salvage another losing run so calm down boys and girls, this is not a Kudlow Green-Shoot-From-His-Butt-Save-Us-All-From-Godless-Commies signal.

With that being said, as a homage to Kudlow, America’s favorite Coke original formula promoter, let’s see what an ex-Teamsters company is accomplishing in this slap a pile of crap happy on the shineola economy, that’s right it’s the old Corn Flake operating now as Conway:

CONWAYREVQ2gsbsjgfla.jpg

Wow, more Green Shoots BS (GSBS). Thankfully the Bubblevision networks do not talk about reality. Conway, it’s been nice knowing ya while ya lasted….

FORWARDAIROPREVQ2jgflap1.jpg

Just dang. A company that tried to hijack me is sucking wind also. Oh well, maybe the “forwarding of air” from point A to point B will become profitable under the Obamanation….

GATXQ2importsjgfla.jpg

Thankfully America’s economy does not rely on imports or manufacturing according to CNBC.

KNIGHTQ2TLOPSTATSjgfla.jpg

The above information, direct from Knight Transportation’s 8K (Yeah, I know, I suck, I use FACTS) indicates a continuing decline even in the best of companies in their field. Which means the companies that really, really really suck, are toast. It also means the companies that “get it” will survive and those with union contracts will be conducting begathons with the Congress and President Obmagiveaway shortly.

MARTENtrasnsportQ2jgfla.jpg

Marten is one of the best run truckload companies also and yet they can not force the Obamanation to ship more and the bubbleheads still proclaim that Q2 was a “recovery” quarter.

Bullcrap.

Next…

ODFLQ2REV2jgfla.jpg

Thankfully ODFL does not service the entire nation so Obama can claim this report does not count. However for those East of the Mississippi, this is somewhat of a signal that perhaps the Paraquat sprayed by the Fed is killing the green shoots and sprouting poisonous brown ones.

I’m just sayin….

ODFLQ2REVjgfla.jpg

Thankfully, revenues do not count in this new economy, only feelings. Good luck making your shareholders ‘feel it’ baby….

SAIAQ2OPERATIONSjgfla.jpg

Uh, SAIA is not one of those badly run companies. I think. I thought. Well, I did do some consulting with them in the 1990’s and helped them become profitable. What the hell is going on there boys? Never mind, blame Obama, I would.

UNIONPACFGTREVQ2jgfla.jpg

Hmmm. I would sing “I’ve been working on the railroad” but that is apparently a lie for many, many folks….

UNIONPACIFICQ2OPERATINGjgfla.jpg

That’s the kind of number that is going to leave a mark….or a need for counseling…..

UNIONPACIFICQ2REVjgfla.jpg

Thankfully for the unionized railroads, relief is but one takeover away. We can pay for their failures and they can still increase revenues, some day, at taxpayer expense. Just like Chrysler and GM will. Someday. When I’m dead probably.

So let’s get a little brown and dirty with a well run union company that wants to ilegally use the Constitution to put FedEx out of business using the power of the gun…er, the government…

UPSYOURSQ2REVPERPKGjgfla.jpg

Nah, no big deal. Taxpayers can fill that gap. Right?

UPSYOURSQ2revreortjgfla.jpg

On the good news side, revenue is no longer important in America as we shall show with the Banksters tomorrow night in Part II of this series. The UPS boys are well protected with their brown shorts, brown shirts (uh-oh) and ally in the White House guaranteeing they can buy the USPS at 15 cents on the Zimbabwe dollar.

That is just a taste of what I’m bringing to the table this week. I read 8K’s and 10Q’s so you, my loyal following does not have to. And so Erin Burnett can stay focused and put black electrical tape over the keyholes of her hotel rooms, a lesson a certain ESPN foxette learned the hard way (oh crap, sorry about the pun)…..

Until tomorrow and Part II, the BANKSTERS…..

Good night, er, morning, er..whatever….

-John

2 Comments
»

  1. […] Re: Close to the end of the Great Recession – Only the Shadow knows hdxpedx hit it, is freigjt moving…nope…we all here are in the one industry that shows the true picture…just so happens that on another board i frequent the following article was posted from the OP’ers website. It is too long and has a handful of charts to show what is going on in the Trucking industry…here is a little bit of it, and the link…take the time to read it and look over the charts….we are far for any recovery….: Shenandoah Smoke, Mirrors, Distortion, Hope and Change – The Earnings Pump Myth Part 1- Transportation __________________ “If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks], will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.” “I place economy among the first and most important republican virtues, and public debt as the greatest of the dangers to be feared. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt.” –Thomas Jefferson Bolt Unit B441 White GMC Cargo Van OOIDA Member, #934277 […]Pingback by Close to the end of the Great Recession – Only the Shadow knows – Expedite Trucking Forums — July 27, 2009 @ 11:34 am
  2. […] http://johngaltfla.com/blog2/2009/07/27/smoke-mirrors- distortion-hope-and-change-the-earnings-pump-myth-part-1-transportation It feeds into my notion the next slew of negative US economic news will kick in over the weeks ahead, which will send our stock market back down. […]Pingback by Free of State » Blog Archive » US Government Orchestrates Market Moves To Affect Massive Treasury Auctions In A Day Filled With Irony — July 28, 2009 @ 4:43 pm

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