by John Galt
January 2, 2009
- Thank Steve Quayle for another fantastic year on the air. Thank WHRI for their professionalism and great signal. Promote Steve Melching with thanks and www.archiveondemand.com to support the program. Remind everyone that for the future we will not be on shortwave unless times change.
THIS PROGRAM IS NOT THE REFLECTION OF NOR OPINION OF STEVE QUAYLE, MY FELLOW HOSTS, THE REALITY RADIO NETWORK OR GLOBALSTAR RADIO NETWORKS. THE FINANCIAL INFORMATION PROVIDED ON THIS PROGRAM, AS ALWAYS, IS ONLY AN OPINION AND NOT A SPECIFIC RECCOMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS. SEEK A PROFESSIONAL FINANCIAL ADVISER FOR THAT PURPOSE.
- Review some of last year’s predictions……(ugh) and grade yourself.
- Email address for listener’s comments and predictions at email@example.com and thank The Tree of Liberty and Frugal Squirrels for their support
- Break show up as follows:
- North American geopolitical predictions
- South and Central American geopolitical predictions
- Europe and Africa
- Middle East
- Morality based predictions
- Banana Republic update theme
- Tie update into Useless Ta-Ta’s article at johngaltfla.com
- North America- U.S. will continue to deteriorate on the world stage. The military will be further weakened by constant resupply issues into Afghanistan as assets are shifted from the Iraq theater to that region. Intermittent interruptions in the ground and air supply routes through and over Pakistan will further strain relations. Russia influences the Central Asian Republics to feign support for our efforts against the Taliban. Russian mafia are discovered to be one of the primary sources of funding for the Taliban via the opium trade in the Afghan-Pakistan region. An American military unit is encircled inside Afghanistan and the phrase “Broken Arrow” is heard for the first time since the Vietnam War. As a result, President Obama increases in theater troop levels over 200,000 by year end.
The McCain-Kennedy Immigration Reform Act is passed by June of 2009 and a huge celebration erupts in the border states and inside of Mexico. US Border Patrol goes on strike as Campeon and Ramos are not pardoned by President Bush as he departs and the Homeland Security Agency requests military assistance to replace them.
Numerous American civilians are killed in small border town, much like the Pancho Villa raids a century ago but the victims are painted as part of the drug trade and the issue is swept under the carpet by Mexico and the U.S.
The issue is kept alive by the victims’ families and the internet blogs but to little avail.
The EIB Act (Equality in Broadcasting) passes the House then the Senate (61-38 vote) initiating the fairness doctrine for local supervision only. The act is extensive as it applies to all licensed broadcast medium originating inside the United States via radio or television. The ACLU has unusual willing conspirators including Senators Specter (R-PA), McCain (R-AZ) and Snow (R-ME) who offer to cosponsor. As an olive branch the low power FM broadcasting act is reinforced and offered a government grant program as part of the act, over the howls of large radio networks and the talk show hosts on these networks.
The Obama Economic Recovery Act of 2009 is a $1.2 trillion stimulus program designed to attack the recession on several fronts-
1st – Middle Class tax relief where all families or married couples earning less than $100,000 per year are given an additional $5,000 deduction for 2009. There is also an immediate rebate of $1,000 per person for everyone earning under $50,000 as a single person, $100,000 for couples to be issued on March 31st. $20,000 tax credit for all first time home buyers, deductible all at once or over 5 years; $1,000 tax credit for 2009 only for new car purchases plus interest deductions for auto loans not to exceed 60 months in length for any vehicle exceeding 25 mpg city and 30 mph highway with all purchases to be made by October 31, 2009. Suspension of capital gains taxes for all transactions in 2009 is also a possibility.
The NORTHCOM command receives permission to create a new military division with exclusive deployment inside the US and North America for domestic Homeland Security related operations. This division will be declared active by June 1, 2009 and recruited from National Guard and US Marine units that are currently active or in reserve. The recruiting tool will be the guarantee of no overseas deployments outside of North America and huge bonuses plus training guaranteeing Law Enforcement certifications in all US states and territories.
The Longshoreman Union threatens to strike over the NASCO superhighway and ports in Mexico under expansion. The Obama administration negotiates a settlement by guaranteeing a “thruway tax” on all non-US destined freight to compensate the unions for their losses.
Mexico loses two major pipelines due to terrorist attacks and the border with Guatemala is closed at one point due to increased violence with the Zapitista movement. The Marxists also claim the capture and execution of a platoon of Mexican Army regulars creating a crisis in confidence of the government and more economic disruption.
2nd– South and Central America
The Venezuelan, Cuban, Nicaraguan, Honduran, Ecuadoran and Uruguayan governments sign a mutual defense treaty with special military aid packages guaranteed by the Russian and Chinese governments to insure the “Yanqui” threat will not overthrow their governments.
Guatemala experiences a Marxist Coup d-Etat.
An attempt on Hugo Chavez’s life while speaking in public in Venezuela fails and further mobilizes his support and base, creating a “Krystalnact” in Caracas.
The Panama Canal is closed by Chinese authorities for “maintenance” causing a trade bottleneck. In reality it is an effort to bolster their fading trade in the Pacific and force more buyers to purchase their products and use their fleet of merchant marine vessels. The closure brings calls inside the US to take it back over but the Panamanian government sides with China after a healthy compensation package for the “inconvenience created by “decades of American neglect of the canal.”
3rd– Europe and Africa –
Twelve African nations, hit hard by the economic decline, sign up for the CWTU (Chinese World Trade Union) where in exchange for exclusive first use rights to their raw materials, the Chinese provide military protection, payment in finished goods and technical assistance for the agricultural needs.
Europe reacts by forming the EUWTU in response but few nations sign up as the Euro has strengthened to new highs plus they EU refuses to put the NATO umbrella over non-member states for trading purposes.
The United Kingdom abandons the Pound Sterling at the end of 2009 after it reaches 2 Euros to the pound and parity with a declining dollar.
Somalia is invaded by a joint Arab League/United Nations force including Russian, Chinese and NATO forces to seize and end the spate of actions by pirates. This action is heralded as a joint idea to foster cooperation between Putin, the EU, China and Obama and to celebrate the idea of a new world system for dealing with threats inside nations that could harm freedom or economic stability world wide.
4th – Russia
Vladimir Putin returns to power after riots in Moscow and St. Petersburg force the military to deploy and stifle unrest. Putin declares “Western style banking and capitalism as a morally flawed and corrupt system” and declares a new Russian based model. The Ruble is now tied to a basket of commodities including gold and oil and to the Euro. The exchange rate is set at 10 Roubles to the Dollar creating a flood of European investment into the beleaguered nation.
Russia successfully deploys a space based missile interceptor. President Obama is “invited” to create a mutual peace initiative to rid the world of the threat from a nuclear armeggedon and Start 3 discussions begin with Secretary of State Clinton before the year ends.
5th– Middle East
Israel invades Lebanon after Hezbollah launches a series of rocket strikes into northern Israel to support “Their brothers in Gaza.
Turkey withdraws from NATO and joins the new Islamic Mutual Defense Conference being promoted by Iran, Iraq and Syria.
The Kurdish region demands autonomy but the US government declares this to be an internal Iraqi matter. Iran and Turkey launch a massive spring offensive crippling the ability of the Kurds to defend their territory.
The first riots are publicly acknowledged inside of Saudi Arabia and spread to the UAE, Oman and Yemen. The riots are repressed brutally with hundreds executed in every nation.
The American military is asked to leave Kuwait by 2011 and Turkey by 2010.
Iran is attacked by Israel but still conducts a successful underground nuclear test. Oil prices react accordingly.
6th– India and Pakistan
A major exchange occurs on the ground as India launches air raids on to an ISI sponsored camp in Northern Pakistan causing all powers to intervene. After over 10,000 casualties, both sides return to their normal state of being on the razor’s edge. Pakistan advises the US that the overland supply routes will be required to pay a huge tax for the use of their military to protect American convoys.
Pakistan signs a major arms supply agreement with Russia. India reacts by seeking the same from the Europeans and US.
7th– Asia and Australasia
Vietnam becomes the first nation to go bankrupt and default on all of its debts. A new communist model is reintroduced with support from Russia and the Latin American socialist bloc.
Australia and New Zealand contemplate tying a portion of their currency’s backing to gold and silver.
Indonesia experiences a major economic catastrophe after another major earthquake and huge volcanic eruption. Debt default is possible there also as a result.
8th – China
The Chinese Communist Party surprises the world by striking more exclusive trade agreements with emerging markets and demonstrates a willingness to trade at a loss while these nations modernize. Investment in the United States declines in 2009 along with the amount of bond holdings which should decline under $1 trillion by Q3 2009.
The Chinese also form a new alliance with the nations on the Arab peninsula in exchange for naval protection for ships under their flags that sail through the pirate infested areas. This agreement works so well that after the Somalia mess is cleaned out (per other prediction) the Arabs work at trade agreements locking oil in at higher but still reasonable prices with massive sales to help China fill their strategic petroleum reserves. The Israeli government also begins to develop “warmer” relations with China as the U.S. shuns our traditional ally.
9th THE ECONOMY
– Dow will drop and test the lows and probably violate them during the first quarter of 2009. After the test which could occur in the 600-650 range of the S&P 500, around 6100-6300 on the Dow, then a protracted rally begins based on the Obama Stimulus program.
– Banks are consolidated at a faster pace under the Obama administration. Over 400 banks could be absorbed by the FDIC and either merged into the new TARP reinforced stronger megabanks or liquidated in the first 180 days of 2009. This is a reflection of the inaction by the Bush administration which took the election year politics into consideration over the health of the financial system.
– A major personality on one of the broadcast Financial networks will be indicted for illegal trading activities unrelated to Madoff but to another brewing scandal. This destroys the credibility of the network and causes it to be dropped by many cable systems.
– GE sells the NBC broadcast network and all affiliated assets to a coalition of Private Equity investors.
– Over 200 newspapers go bankrupt and go away in 2009.
– The EIB Act causes Clear Channel and other networks to sell all small market radio operations to raise cash and avoid the bureaucratic frustrations of the new law.
– The FCC begins a review panel for regulating internet broadcasting. The Obama Administration requests suggestions for regulation by December of 2009.
– Housing problems worsen in 2009 with over 3 million foreclosures or abandoned homes possible. The highest number of personal bankruptcies in history is recorded in 2009. The 2nd highest number of corporate bankruptcies follow.
– Gold will test $1000, drop and retest the $850-$900 range, and surge above $1800 at some point during 2009.
– Silver will regain a minimum of a 40-1 ratio at the same time moving it in excess of $45 at the peek.
– The US Dollar Index finishes below 68 in 2009.
– Inflation tops 15% by year end. Higher using www.shadowstats.com projections which means in excess of 21% in all probability.
– As a result of the new inflationary surge, the Dow hits a peek towards year end of 12,500 to 13,000. Unfortunately for the bulls the gold ratio to the Dow is going to drop closer to the 7:1 ratio.
– The secondary US Treasury market implodes in the 2nd half of 2009 resulting in a flight to safety in commodities and the Euro.
– The NY Times files for Bankruptcy protection when the Senate filibusters a relief act.
– 1400 more Trucking companies (or more) go out of business in 2009.
– Canada refuses to abide by Dept of Energy and US EPA environmental concerns and gets a guaranteed contract for the oil sands with China and Japan at a minimum delivery price of $80 per barrel. This reduces our supplies by 4% by Q4 2009.
– Chrysler is liquidated by the government for failing to meet any qualifications of the “TARP” bailout.
– $300 billion of the infrastructure stimulus program is dedicated to the NASCO transnational project.
– The Health care reform act triggers a massive sell off in Pharm and Medical Device companies.
– The US Government will pass a ½ cent internet sales tax to raise revenues.
– The US Government annual deficit exceeds $3 trillion in 2009.
– 2 NHL and 2 MLB teams file for bankruptcy.
– NASCAR reduces its racing schedule by 3 races due to a lack of sponsors. Greenpeace begins protesting at NASCAR events for the environmental damage done by internal combustion engines.
– Oil will peak at $105 per barrel and stay with in 15% of that number through year end.
10th – WEATHER
So last year’s hurricane predictions were JUST A BIT OUTSIDE (get it gang?)……
With that, I predict:
17 named storms
3 major hurricanes
4 hurricanes have a U.S. Landfall
Global temperatures will miraculously begin to rise 0.2 degrees under the Obama administration and the new Kyoto treaty sails through.
11th – Moral Dilemmas
– The religious broadcasters are assailed under the EIB act. Please support them.
– Two cable networks drop religious channels for refusing to carry balanced programming.
– Socialism is taught as a form of government supported by Jesus Christ causing a schism in the church.
– Gun ownership is scrutinized as a barbaric relic of the American past and assigned the same stigma and harassment as cigarette smoking, illegal drug use and other vices. The new tactic also puts “Christians for peace” protesters in front of gun shows, shops, and ranges causing declines in sales. The “protestors” are actually members of the radical left wing religious fringe who believes the integration of Marxism and Christianity are “just” and all tactics are appropriate.
– The history of Islam, Judiasm and Christianity will become required teachings in Federally sponsored religious tolerance classes in high school.
– Websites on the internet will fight a proposed rating system to be established by the FCC to prevent children’s access and allow ISP to charge higher prices for “questionable” content.